First, the rationale for believing that the past growth and success of U.S. dairy operations will continue into the near future may be compelling, but far from guaranteed. The year 2016 could be very different from today.

Second, most dairy producers that we surveyed will admit they “are most prepared for Field of Dreams or possibly American Gothic ... but these may be the least likely of the four scenarios to occur in the future.”

With the potential for major change, and the impending collision of opposing forces, dairy leaders must assess what it will take to succeed across the multiple scenarios presented, and not simply in those “we hope will happen.” Running harder, becoming more efficient, for example, may be a necessary but not sufficient criteria for success.

Some of the strategies dairy producers should investigate – sooner rather than later – are:

Take-home messages

• Develop new partnerships with government (local, state and federal) as well as suppliers (for access to latest technology, advice and perspective).

• Seek latest technologies if only to maintain import barriers through low-cost/high-quality operations.

• Look for business diversification opportunities – new geographies (including international) and new, related businesses (such as expanded livestock management, agri-tourism, or specialty production).

• Investigate the opportunities for relocating production to low-cost, accessible markets (Argentina, Brazil, China and Russia/E. Europe in descending order).

Future success will go to those dairy leaders who embrace the future, squarely facing future challenges and opportunities, not turned around, looking only to the past, bemoaning the rapidly passing “good old days."  PD

Jim Austin
Business Strategist
& Dairy Industry Consultant
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