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| 0607 PD: MARKET REPORTS: April milk production up 1.6 percent |
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| Archives - Past Articles | |||
| Wednesday, 06 June 2007 04:57 | |||
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Editor’s note: The following are available market reports and futures data as of May 18, 2007. Milk production in the 23 major states during April totaled 14.4 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from April 2006. March revised production, at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 1.2 percent from March 2006. The March revision represented an increase of 11 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major states averaged 1,745 pounds for April, 19 pounds above April 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major states was 8.28 million head, 39,000 head more than April 2006, but 6,000 head less than March 2007. Butter The CME cash butter price remains firm. The current price is the highest since late October 2005. Churning activity across the country is seasonally strong, although lighter than recent weeks. Cream supplies available to the churn are tightening as Class II demand increases. Ice cream production is slow in developing this season, but it is steadily gaining momentum. Current churning continues to surpass demand, thus surplus is clearing to inventory. CME weekly butter stocks grew by 8.6 million pounds last week to stand at 137.8 million pounds. This compares to 143.8 million pounds for the same week last year. This is the largest weekly increase in stocks since January. Stocks have been running below year-ago levels for the past several weeks. In the last five weeks, stocks have increased 20.3 million pounds compared to 23.8 million pounds during the comparable period last year. Butter demand is seasonally fair although orders for resort and vacation areas are heavier as preparations are made for the unofficial opening of the summer vacation season. Cheese Cheese prices are mixed, moving higher and lower. Many buyers are trying to build inventory to beat additional price increases. Current prices have slowed or stopped new promotional plans. Current cheddar offerings are limited. Mozzarella supplies are tight, and some customer orders have been shorted. Standardizing cheese vats, particularly for varieties like LMPS mozzarella with NDM priced higher than cheese, is impractical. Traders are worried that higher milk prices caused by the strong NDM market could pull milk volumes away from cheese. Current prices are an incentive for producers to keep cheese inventories at a minimum. Cheese production is steady to slightly higher where increases in milk volumes offset reduced cheese yields. CCC announced the purchase of an additional 1.8 to 4.4 million pounds of mozzarella for July 1, 2007 through December 31, 2008. Fluid milk Milk intakes are trending lower in most Southern areas, including Florida. Wildfires in the Southeast caused some roads to be closed and reduced air quality, but otherwise dairy has been unaffected. In the Northeast and Upper Midwest, milk volumes are steady to occasionally higher, often less than expected for mid-May. Receipts are lower in Arizona where daytime temperatures over 100 degrees have caused producers to step up heat abatement measures to help stabilize milk receipts. California’s intakes are lower and are allowing processors to handle supplies more effectively. Receipts are steady to higher in the Pacific Northwest, as well as Utah and Idaho. Class I use continues to slow seasonally as additional schools close for the summer. Dry products The whey market is generally steady though reported prices moved both higher and lower. Current production and available offerings vary by location with some in good balance and some with a few loads to move. Export interest remains good with FAS reporting whey exports for the first quarter of 2007 totaling 126.6 million pounds, up 19.4 percent from the same time in 2006. The WPC market is steady to firm. Production is strong seasonally though supplies are also mixed. Some producers are fully contracted and others have product to sell. First quarter 2007 exports of 34 percent WPC totaled 43.7 million pounds and 80 percent WPC were 7.4 million pounds, up 118.2 percent and 29.4 percent respectively from the same period last year. Lactose prices remain firm as production is steady to higher and spot trades are light. The NDM market is firm and prices are steady to higher. Supplies remain light and many buyers are still going unsatisfied. Export interest remains strong and would absorb more product if available. FAS reported NDM/SMP exports for the first quarter of 2007 at 133.2 million pounds, up 1 percent from the same quarter in 2006. Buttermilk is firm and prices are higher. Buyers are trying to build dry buttermilk inventory for summer when churning normally slows and as a substitute in some applications. Current supplies are limited. Federal milk order advance prices highlights Under the federal milk order pricing system, the base price for Class I milk for June 2007 is $17.84, up $1.92 from May. This price is derived from the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor of $12.88 and the advanced butterfat pricing factor of $1.5466 per pound. Class I differentials specific to each county are added to the base price to determine the Class I price. The Class II skim milk price for June is $13.58 and the Class II nonfat solids price is $1.5089 per pound. The following are the two-week product price averages: butter $1.4090, nonfat dry milk $1.6024, cheese $1.5333 and dry whey $0.7623. April federal milk order price and pool During April, about 9.6 billion pounds of milk were received from producers. This volume of milk is 9.2 percent lower than the April 2006 volume. In April 2007, there was a significant volume of milk not pooled due to intraorder disadvantageous price relationships. About 3.7 billion pounds of producer milk was used in Class I products, 3.3 percent higher than the previous year. Calendar composition likely had a positive impact on milk used in Class I in 2007 as compared to 2006 while the timing of the Easter season likely had no impact. The all-market average class utilization percentages were: Class I = 39 percent
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